A thing that makes me nervous is that, for ages, the Fed never successfully re-raised interest rates because the market panicked every time they even mentioned it. But if things go badly, lowering interest rates isn't even possible...
@elomatreb no one would ever notice
@cwebber maybe the market panicked because they knew it would result in inflation, which would force wage increases, and they're not that interested in wage earners making a bigger piece of the pie. If the market panics, I see that as a good thing. We just need the fed to be unafraid of it.
@ted Yeah I'm not sold on that...
I think as shitty as Keynesian economics are, at least it was a system that could be turned to when everything went nearly off the cliff entirely in 2008. But the kind of recovery method used in the last decade is a short to medium term recovery mechanism, and if you stay on that medicine it's not going to work next time...
@cwebber I think that it's probably not that purposeful, but the lower interest rates do help keep inflation lower, which helps those with cash keep it. I think that we've now shown inflation can be too high and too low.
@ted I agree there re: inflation
@ted Whoa wait I just re-read what you said... I somehow misread it as the opposite.
FWIW yes I agree that the fed should re-raise interest rates regardless of nervousness, because if the fed rate being low is what "kept us here" that's not good either...
my main worry is we should have done this 3 or 4 years ago!
This drop is probably just a bump and not a collapse. So I'm not prophesizing.
That said: maybe too big to fail is a bad idea particularly in how it was executed, but at least the 2008 recovery happened under the Obama administration with economic logic behind it, and I think we really *were* close to a cliff. I'm not sure Trump's team will follow anything regarding economic safeguards if things go badly under this administration.
@cwebber to be fair, the stock market collapsing and wiping out a big enough portion of the rnc donor base's wealth is literally the only way trump's term is limited to fewer than 8 years
@swizzard Hm nope, I don't think that's true. I don't think Trump got here on RNC donations... I don't think he was donor top choice from all I've read. I think he got here on fear.
Maybe a stock market crash could do badly for Trump if it turns people against him. Though if it incites some sort of violent action, I really do think Trump is waiting for his Reichstag Fire.
@swizzard That's not to say he didn't take RNC donations and that it wasn't a powerful force. I just think he wasn't donor top choice.
@cwebber maybe he didn't *get* here via the rnc, but the release of the memo last week shows that the republican party as a whole has resolutely hitched its wagon to him and will defend him at any cost. the only way that changes is if it seems like he's bad for the bottom line.
@swizzard Okay, you're probably right there.
@cwebber there's a chance the dems will win big-ish in 2018, and it is literally possible that they will run someone at all likable with a sliver of a coherent message in 2020. if they do so, the ~30% of the country that comprises trump's diehard base won't be enough, especially if turnout is depressed by e.g. a literal depression
@cwebber don't get me wrong: i don't think the democrats will actually avoid the opportunity to fuck up the fantastic opportunity that will be handed to them in the worst possible way
@swizzard Even more probably true!
@swizzard Hopefully true!
@cwebber Maybe the Federal Reserve should try giving money directly to people who make less than $100K a year.
@cwebber Just do it without a press release and suddenly find a shifty distraction when someone asks about interest rates