“I see Kahneman’s and Taleb’s critiques as the strongest challenges to the notion of superforecasting.” —Tetlock and Gardner, *Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction*
Specifically, Kahneman’s doubt that cognitive biases can be reliably-enough overcome, and Taleb’s that only inconsequential predictions can be made with any accuracy.
If that’s it, superforecasting is in good shape, enough to make money :)
“now that we know that war casualties actually do have a fat-tailed distribution, we should not be astonished when military historians tell us that World War II could have claimed far more than sixty million lives if Hitler had launched the invasion of the Soviet Union earlier in 1941 or had intuited the destructive power of the atomic bomb. The possibilities were once real—and numerous.” —Tetlock and Gardner.
Taleb. Kahneman. Anders Ericsson. Duncan Watts. Tetlock is a synthesizer and doer.
