Does anyone know the rate at which password-cracking methods are improving? Specifically: what is the doubling time?

Also: the process is probably best expressed as keys cracked per second per $1,000 investment, or $1/(key-second). It's not a flat rate, it's a cost-dependent rate for a given point in time.

Quick maths suggests that if the rate-doubling time is 2 years, and a current key is rated at 1 trillion years, *ACTUAL* effective strength is less than 70 years.



@dredmorbius I've written UI code before (in keysafe) that estimates time to crack the user's password, and I used moore's law and AWS spot instance pricing.

@joeyh Oh, nice approach.

The thing with exponentials is that the crack time starts getting really fast, really fast, a few generations out. The doubling rate matters far more than the cracking rate.

You might alternately set a budget for cracking and compute how long before the password will be hackable at, say, $1m, $1k, $100, and $1.

My intuition is that those will not be separated by much time.

OK, maybe _some_ time -- about 20 years. 3.3 years per OoM.

How much trouble are you worth?

@joeyh If I've got this figured right, the key is crackable for about $1 in 53 years, assuming Moore holds up.

Is your spot pricing following Amazon's pricing trends?

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