John Garrison @Garrison@octodon.social

I have news for this company about the definition of "pure."

A Hall and Oates cover band named Corridor and Graine

chairman of the bored

People are wrong in saying the polls were terrible this year. They weren't great, but they weren't terrible.

Biggest takeaway: most of the polling errors were favorable to Trump, which means that the issues of 2016 were not fixed: pollsters are still failing to properly sample and/or adjust for conservative voters. That's something they will have to examine much more.

However, there's also the confounding factor of voter suppression by the Trump administration and GOP state governments, including slow-walking or disallowing voting by mail, sabotaging the USPS, and shit-talking voting by mail. Pollsters and forecasters, including FiveThirtyEight, made no attempt to adjust for that, because they had no idea how.

That said, election day went very smoothly and turnout beat records, so I doubt it was much of a factor in the end.

The attached image consists of the main bottom lines I took away from my analysis. My data is linked in my Dropbox.

All prediction and polling data (using their adjusted average) was taken from FiveThirtyEight.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6246ajvz2s4o654/Polling%20and%20Forecasting%202020.xlsx?dl=0

the more i think about it, maybe the world actually DID end in 2012

Next in my "Terrible US President" series is John Tyler, the ur-example of why you shouldn't pick a Vice Presidential candidate to "balance the ticket."

Ostensibly a member of the anti-slavery Whig Party, Tyler, a slaveholder, was made William Harrison's running mate so that the ticket might have some appeal to Southerners. Then Harrison died a month after being inaugurated, making Tyler the first Vice President to succeed to the Presidency under Article II.

Aside from completely alienating his Party and being expelled from it, he is also known for getting the Republic of Texas admitted to the Union as a slave state through, basically, a loophole. While a treaty of annexation (treaties being the usual method of reaching agreements between nations) had been negotiated and agreed upon between Texas and the USA, the 2/3 vote in the US Senate required to ratify it just wasn't there. So the Tyler Administration came up with the idea of annexing Texas via a joint resolution of the Congresses of both nations, which only required a simple majority. And since there weren't no rule that said they COULDN'T do that, it was done.

Shield, Aspect of Zeus: Circular Saw Blade Frisbee

Sword, Aspect of Arthur - Louisville Slugger

Spear, Aspect of Zagreus - Speararang

Shield, Aspect of Zagreus - Shield, Aspect of Captain America

Fists, Aspect of Talos: Magnet Gloves, How Do They Work?

Gun, Aspect of Zagreus - Gun, Aspect of Tommy

Gun, Aspect of Lucifer - Satan's Laser

Draw me like one of your French bulldogs

ketchup masks flavor, and as such should only be used on bland foods, like fast food fries or underseasoned burgers.

it's not really a condiment so much as a way to "fix" food that doesn't taste good by making it taste like ketchup instead.

snake oil gets a pretty bad rap, but it *is* the single best way to lubricate your snake

We now go live to Rudy Giuliani for the latest on the Trump campaign's allegations of election fraud.

i declare today cancelled *bangs gavel*

at current count, Biden is ahead of Trump in the popular vote by nearly 6 million, or nearly 4 full percentage points

donald trump appears to have not yet learned how mail works

i'd like to teach the squirrels to sing

estos toots están disponibles en español en SAP

i should go to bed

pump up the bass

So there was an episode of I Love Lucy where Lucy got into legal trouble in France, and the French police chief wanted to question her, except he only spoke French and she only spoke English. But Ricky was there (who spoke Spanish and English), one of the chief's officers spoke French and German, and they had someone in the drunk tank who spoke German send Spanish. So the chief asked his question in French to his officer, the officer asked it in German to the drunk, the drunk asked it in Spanish to Ricky, and Ricky asked it in English to Lucy.

It was a funny bit.

Anyway, I want to write a bit like that, expect it's boomer to gen x to millennial to zoomer.