This Shiga pottery cup broke today. Bought it at a shop in Uji, just outside Byōdōin. When I visited it again couple of years later, they’d closed.

TIL: — A distributed, syncable key-value store (early alpha) github.com/cinnamon-bun/earths

Comparison to and attached (via github.com/cinnamon-bun/earths). Excited because Earthstar offers:

- mutability, deletion 🎉
- multiple devices per author 🎊
- partial replication 👏
- 🥴

H/t @staltz (twitter.com/andrestaltz/status)

teaching me ヒョウ onyomi reading of 表 and I'm fishing around for any word I know using "hyou" 🤔💡—KyoAni's ! Streams on Funi right now, will re-watch tonight 😍!

I made this lost of all onyomi per sorted by frequency of occurrence:

gist.github.com/fasiha/e31386b

I have good mnemonics for some of the top ten but need to improve several—

コウ (kou)
ショウ (shou)
ソウ (sou)
キョウ (kyou)
トウ (tou)
シ (shi)
カン (kan)
セン (sen)
キ (ki)
ケン (ten)

in *Ocean Renegades* about the life during the Paleozoic drops biology fire:

“So basically… the lungs and limbs are things that evolved a long time before any fish stepped onto land. And they evolved for reasons that are unrelated to walking on land.”

“You’ve got it 😌”

“Complicated structure like these don’t just evolve overnight.”

STEM education is hard. Core concepts like this, that influence everything, are subtle and easy to misunderstand and hard to quiz on.

Holy! What a brilliant cover—I was terrifiededly admiring the right “optimist cover” and thinking wait, all the Tibetan and Pamir ice caps have melted, this is optimistic???, and thought to check the back, and oh my, what a shock.

Not frequent that design can shock me. magazine does it again. Happy to pay for this 🔥.

I did some crazy TypeScript compile-time type checking for work.

Odds of it passing code review: 30%.

Odds of Vito Corleone being pleased: 3000%.

offers today’s sentence 🤣:

単純な馬鹿でありたい
(Tanjun na baka de aritai)
“Want to be a plain idiot.”

(Streams on Funimation.)

Pretty sakura colormap for my plot: "PuOr" in matplotlib.

Umm, I doubt anyone wants to know what the plot is of (though it's very interesting, it takes a long time to explain, and it might not be that useful).

Today we hit 20-session trailing returns of -30% 😳!

But enough about the past! What about the next three days? What does history say it might go up or down to till Monday close?

As usual, these charts show the trailing returns, so find -30% on them. Then one shows the WORST drop over next 3 days, the other the BEST spike over 3 days. Color is year.

Depending on whether you've bought put or call options expiring Monday 😊.

What an incredible ride, in a ghastly, Army of Darkness sort of way.

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Might as well post the drawdowns chart that includes this pre-1928 monthly data from Robert Shiller.

I'm thinking a lot about 's short-term vs long-term debt cycles from "How the economic machine works in 30 minutes" economicprinciples.org because just eyeballing this chart, it seems that outside the world wars and great depressions we have >20% drops every ~10 years, i.e., the short-term debt cycle.

Wars and depressions overlap with the long-term debt cycles (~75 years)—coincidence?

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These are nominal prices. I've been staring at this chart, of nominal vs real (inflation-adjusted) prices of the S&P also. Log-plot.

Staring at the nominal curve gives a wrong feeling about the post-WW2 boom. And underemphasizes how shitty the 1965–1980 era of stagflation and oil shocks were for equities.

The inflation-adjusted curve shows the post-WW2 era as a more natural extension of the pre-WW1 era. Interpolating straight lines (→exponential growth in log plot) to today gives ~1500~2000.

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It's an ugly chart, far more busy than my memory of Hussman's and needing deep introspection, but here's the seventeen bull market tops that were followed by drawdowns of 20% or more to their bear market bottoms.

Split into two sections just to have a hope of seeing each of the lines.

Each is quite a story.

(SVG at github.com/fasiha/historical-o for nicer zoom)

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From limited experience, Fridays are complicated. It reminded me that the # of editors who edit Wikipedia has a strong day-of-week pattern too (github.com/fasiha/wikiatrisk#f).

So I made this. Same data as above (updated to include Friday) but plots five different linear regressions for each day of the week.

It's not looking good for Monday! Jokingly from the full linear regression's slope.

On Friday we were at -16% on the x axis. And out-of-the-money puts on S&P500 were exxxpensive!

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But why have the fifteen-session trailing returns predict just the one-day future return?

Why not see all one-YEAR future returns?

That's what's show in this plot. Each dot in the previous plot is still here with the same position along the x axis (trailing 15-session returns) but the y axis shows the returns over the subsequent year.

We're at -25% on the x axis, and the data supports anything from another -35% decline in spring 2021 or a healthy +45% recovery.

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Here's a redo of the plot from earlier, with a bugfix and a bright red dot for today.

Early today, the 15-session % change for SNP500 was almost -19%. That's the x-value of the red dot.

Today we lost almost 10%. The red dot gets a y-value of -10%.

Which is the lowest of all points in this graph of %-changes between -25% and -15%.

The second chart shows the full zoomed-out plot: all 15-day returns from -37% to +55%, and all one-day returns of -20% to 16% are here! Which is your fave???

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5 minutes before US markets open, I give you a plot showing the trailing 15 days percent return of the S&P500 since 1928 versus the one-day return from the 15th to 16th day.

Notable because yesterday our 15-day return was -19%, so this graph is centered around that (-17% to -23%), and overlaid on it is the linear fit. Which, for the vision-impaired, is flat: even odds that the market will pop up or continue to crater down.

I don't have time to redo analysis considering opening futures…

I found a bug in my code and updated it. I also now am using the S&P500's inflation-adjusted returns ("real returns") and subtracting that from the risk-free return:

money.stackexchange.com/a/1210 (& links therein)

Painfully-low numbers: all *sixty* year horizons had negative real excess return between 2002 and 2017.

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’s recently-completed trilogy of graphic novels, “Ocean Renegades” (Paleozoic), “Dinosaur Empire”, & “Mammal Takeover” is beautiful and brilliant and so surprising—in a world of crappy books for undiscerning kids and parents, each is packed with details overlooked in superficial treatments, including morphological, evolutionary, and paleontological angles on the creatures of today and their forebears.

This tree of life shows why echinoderms and cnidarians are brought in 😂

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