"That's a very interesting conundrum that we encounter, which is that some forecasters can be radically wrong in the short-term, but radically right in the long-term. You need mechanisms for factoring that possibility into your decision calculus if you're an organization relying on forecasting tournaments for probability inputs into decisions."

☝️ this. This ☝️ is key for fat-tailed Black Swan risks+predictions—earthquakes, nuclear accidents, pandemics, etc., anything with systemic roots.