Going back to this—I think Tetlock falls for WYSIATI—What You See Is All There Is (via Kahneman)—because Good Judgement Project/IARPA Challenge have short timescales that completely disrupt fat-tailed risk predictions. "Will China have a military engagement in the South China Sea in 2013?" wound up being a "yes" in late December IIRC, but if it'd happened in early January, then how to evaluate those predictions? And the real question could be "Will China fight a Real War in the South China Sea?"