There’s been a few places in this book where I feel the authors forgot their own message. Did JFK’s team really improve between the Bay of Pigs catastrophe and its win during Cuban Missile Cdisis? Wouldn’t you need to test their performance over several geopolitical scares to establish that?

Did this forecaster really let his values misguide his prediction? Wouldn’t you need to run a specific experiment to verify it wasn’t any number of different things?

Well maybe we can forgive some lapses😒