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“I believe the era of new text editors emerging and quickly becoming popular has now ended with Visual Studio Code. has reached unprecedented levels of popularity and refinement, laying a foundation that could mean decades of market dominance.” blog.robenkleene.com/2020/09/2

I like VS Code. But I wish there was an easy place to log this bet, like or , superforecaster style. I’d bet long odds today that VS Code will be replaced in Lindy-time.

@codesections Ohh, no you're absolutely right, that's not a normal phrase, I overcompressed for character limit.

I'd bet even odds VS code will be eclipsed before

max(longevity of Sublime, Atom, VS Code) * 2

given reasonable numbers. Because I don't see Electron/JS as that stable a building-block (I pay the bills writing JS); because I don't think VS Code's moat that the articles cites will be meaningful; and because recently it takes ~a second to autoformat my TypeScript code 😑.

@codesections And "eclipsed" as in, Atom and Sublime are eclipsed, but not dead. I just expect the cycle to continue. In general I'm not impressed with predictions that stable cycles will be disrupted—those predictions I've found to have huge error bounds, so once in a while they're right by accident, usually they're wrong even if their explanation reached 200 points on Hacker News :)

@codesections If you have some time, can you see if Metaculus et al. will let us register this as a prediction and take our bets 😇?

@codesections I didn't realize Sublime was that old! I'd actually probably take ~even odds that it'll be eclipsed in five years. Probably by a cloud version of VS Code itself offered by MS on Azure/GitHub (or Amazon equivalents).

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