‘If someone says, “Given my study of river height variation, there is a 1% chance this levee will be breached sometime in the next year,” it sounds like a statement of physical reality, that might be right or wrong, but either way has objective meaning.

*That is not in fact true.*

The statement contains implicit assumptions about the value of human life versus property damage, since both are at stake… Someone with different values would set the betting odds at a different number’
—Aaron Brown


“Taking less risk than is optimal is not safer; it just locks in a worse outcome. In competitive fields, doing less than the best often means failing completely. Taking more risk than is optimal also results in a worse outcome, and often leads to complete disaster.”
—Aaron Brown, “Red-Blooded Risk”

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