“It’s a shame the social contract for players is so different than for the rest of us in this regard because a lot of good can result from someone saying, “Wanna ?” Offering a wager brings the out in the open, making explicit what is already implicit (and frequently overlooked).”
—Annie Duke, “Thinking in bets”


“The more we recognize that we are betting on our beliefs (with our happiness, attention, health, money, time, or some other limited resource), the more we are likely to temper our statements, getting closer to the truth as we acknowledge the risk inherent in what we believe.” —Duke, ibid.

“Our narrative of being a knowledgeable, educated, intelligent person who holds quality opinions isn’t compromised when we use new information to calibrate our beliefs, compared with having to make a full-on reversal. This shifts us away from treating information that disagrees with us as a threat, as something we have to defend against, making us better able to truthseek.” —Annie Duke, “Thinking in bets”

“When we work toward belief calibration, we become less judgmental of ourselves. Incorporating percentages or ranges of alternatives into the expression of our beliefs means that our personal narrative no longer hinges on whether we were wrong or right but on how well we incorporate new information to adjust the estimate of how accurate our beliefs are. There is no sin in finding out there is evidence that contradicts what we believe.” (Cont.)

“The only sin is in not using that evidence as objectively as possible to refine that belief going forward.” —Annie Duke

“There are people who…have substituted the routine of truthseeking for the outcome-oriented instinct to focus on seeking credit and avoiding blame. When we look at the people performing at the highest level of their chosen field, we find that the self-serving bias that interferes with learning often recedes and even disappears. The people with the most legitimate claim to a bulletproof self-narrative have developed habits around accurate self-critique.” —Duke, ibid.

writers take note.

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