Perceptions of probability, cf.,
- Sherman Kent CIA study https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html and
- Philip Tetlock's *Superforecasting*.
Ridge plot in Bokeh (#Python plotting library).
'an intelligence analyst was asked to substitute numerical probability estimates for the verbal qualifiers in one of his own earlier articles. The first statement was: "The cease-fire is holding but could be broken within a week." The analyst said he meant there was about a 30-percent chance the cease-fire would be broken within a week. Another analyst who had helped this analyst prepare the article said she thought there was about an 80-percent chance that the cease-fire would be broken.'