“Fischer Black thought that #markets got the right price within a factor of two about 90 per cent of the time… I knew Fischer pretty well, and he didn’t throw numbers like those around lightly; he thought long and hard about them, even though they sound like the kind of rough figures other people would come up with quickly. We argued quite a bit about them, and I pushed for ‘within a factor of two about half the time’.” —Aaron Brown
*Financial Risk Management for Dummies* chapter 4 = 🔥
“Taking less risk than is optimal is not safer; it just locks in a worse outcome. In competitive fields, doing less than the best often means failing completely. Taking more risk than is optimal also results in a worse outcome, and often leads to complete disaster.”
—Aaron Brown, “Red-Blooded Risk”
Friends, I'm a terribly incompetent social medialyte—I don't see many toots since I follow almost no one, don't check local or federated timelines, don't get follow/fave/boost notifications—just at some point I lost the taste for being plugged in.
But! I'm more than happy to read, learn, discuss, answer, and mentor:
or whatever 🤗!
(I'll pin this toot, so don't link to it!)
Ideas I frequently invoke:
- Philip Guo on silent technical privilege http://pgbovine.net/tech-privilege.htm
- Bryn Hammond on silenced history https://amgalant.com/
- Duncan Watts on cumulative advantage, or, MusicLab, in the top ten scientific experiments ever https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/magazine/15wwlnidealab.t.html
- AnimeFeminist for their critiques and season guides https://www.animefeminist.com/
(Don't link to this toot, it'll be edited+deleted, but it'll be pinned to my profile on Octodon.social.)
If you have young children and want to make word search puzzles, you know, for practicing spelling in English or another language using the Latin alphabet, or Japanese (hiragana or katakana), I got you covered:
See if you can find all eleven:
The filler characters are randomly generated with the same frequencies as naturally-occurring Japanese (well, as natural as my corpus of anime subtitles…).
Offspring the younger is incredibly excited to be beating me on #Memrise. I'm going to try and get close to his score without exceeding it.
That time we all learned that computing the inverse of a matrix to solve a linear system wasn't as bad as all that:
Taking the inverse of a matrix is anathema in conventional wisdom, but by some numerical examples backed by theoretical explanation, you can see that conventional wisdom isn't right. The power of logic.
I think a lot about that niche part of this #horse #betting model where they paid a racing nerd to watch the races in slow-motion and tabulate cases where the horses were bumped or blocked, to soft-adjust wins and losses and reduce the impact of bad-luck on the regressions.
That’s some high-grade modeling juice. There’s no reason the deep learning kooks couldn’t be this detail-oriented about their models, except they’d rather rush off to publish new papers/blog posts instead of make money.
Learning CSS Grid has given me super-powers, send help.
Mozilla's Jen Simmons' videos are fire—coworker kept insisting I watch them even though I'm not a video person and I'm glad I did (at 1.5x): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbSquHt1VCf18lllS0C5quAaOcsuMAC70
Also obligatory: MDN https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/CSS/CSS_Grid_Layout the example on that page is juicy!
I seem to recall reading that the #Polish informal national motto is "It can always get worse."
Is this true? Was it Maciej Cegłowski that said this? Did I hallucinate this?
pronoun-related tech drama
If you want to see the new #StackOverflow code of conduct requiring users to respect each others' gender pronouns, and consider upvoting the heavily-downvoted move by the company—
(The drama below the main post is likely not worth reading. The techbros are outraged at being told how to behave, and then doubly-outraged that their outrage is being ignored by the company. They also think service on the site is highly correlated with outrage.)
implausibly high nerd level
Remoted into Windows desktop from macOS laptop.
Need to take screen capture of a thing that, if I move mouse or click anything, it disappears (Chrome Inspector of CSS Grid, see attached on https://codepen.io/SaraSoueidan/pen/JrLdBQ/).
Print Screen button, but Mac keyboard has no Print Screen button.
1. Find PC keyboard
2. Take screenshot using macOS and email it
3. make tiny #AutoHotkey macro to convert Winkey-P to Print Screen (Winkey = right-⌘).
#3 and #AHK ftw.
‘People will tolerate a lot of pain if it works.’
Fio: "What's the most important thing to be a good pilot? Experience?"
Porco: "No. Inspiration."
#PorcoRosso didn't tut-tut Fio staying up all night to design his new plane. Not at first.
I don't want to be that asshole who tells people to work during family holidays or anything but when a grownup goes hard, I'm glad Aaron Brown showed me an alternative to tut-tutting and trotting out boring conventional wisdom as if it was a brilliant insight.
Again, I am *not* talking about exploitation or force.
I'm talking about how art and breakthroughs (you remember those?) often require unexpected, unconventional ingredients beyond rigid rules.
#AaronBrown on sleep deprivation helped me become a lot less low-brow about conventional wisdom about sleep, burnout, etc.:
Yes, sleep is good, yes avoiding burning out is very good, blablafuckingbla.
Advice that's reasonable 98% of the time is still unreasonable 2% of the time and calculatedly reaching for something valuable by going to or a bit beyond the limit can be worthy of admiration and praise instead of presumptuous parochialism.
Can someone on Twitter ask #Awkwafina (https://twitter.com/awkwafina) to make herself a LinkedIn or update her old one, so people without LinkedIns have something nice to put in their official work bios?
(Bio webapp at work has a slot for LinkedIn, but not for GitHub/Stack Overflow/any of the watering holes used by normal coders.)
I like languages (spoken & programming) and live in a huge city in the US but enjoy all places and cultures. 💎🌇
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