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Isn't it unnerving that an event with 3% probability is 26% likely to happen at least one time out of ten?

Do something that rare—and 3% seems very rare right??—ten times a day and you're encountering it twice a week.

Kind of freaky.

Bernoulli magic.

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“Fischer Black thought that got the right price within a factor of two about 90 per cent of the time… I knew Fischer pretty well, and he didn’t throw numbers like those around lightly; he thought long and hard about them, even though they sound like the kind of rough figures other people would come up with quickly. We argued quite a bit about them, and I pushed for ‘within a factor of two about half the time’.” —Aaron Brown

*Financial Risk Management for Dummies* chapter 4 = 🔥

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“Taking less risk than is optimal is not safer; it just locks in a worse outcome. In competitive fields, doing less than the best often means failing completely. Taking more risk than is optimal also results in a worse outcome, and often leads to complete disaster.”
—Aaron Brown, “Red-Blooded Risk”

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Ideas I frequently invoke:

- Philip Guo on silent technical privilege

- Bryn Hammond on silenced history

- Duncan Watts on cumulative advantage, or, MusicLab, in the top ten scientific experiments ever

- AnimeFeminist for their critiques and season guides

(Don't link to this toot, it'll be edited+deleted, but it'll be pinned to my profile on

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I can only speak for and as a white cishet presenting man born and raised in the UK here but if you're in a room of other white people with their guard down letting all that whiteness out and you overhear something racist you absolutely need to challenge it. If you're like me you absolutely have been in this situation. You know the one.

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"I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro’s great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen’s Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to “order” than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: “I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action”; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man’s freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a “more convenient season.” "

MLK, Letter From a Birmingham Jail

Partial read-aloud reading list for white and Asian (south, east, & Middle East) parents to teach their kids about the oppression their black friends and relatives have to live with for their whole lives, and to inoculate them against utopian delusions that nationalist racists propagate about our country— 🧵

“Containing the excesses of malignant narcissists is a team effort.” —, “Sand Talk”.

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‘Emu is a troublemaker who brings into being the most destructive idea in existence: I am greater than you; you are less than me. This is the source of all human misery. Aboriginal society was designed over thousands of years to deal with this problem. Some people are just idiots—and everybody has a bit of idiot in them from time to time, coming from some deep place inside that whispers, “You are special…” This behavior needs massive checks and balances to contain the damage it can do.’

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We put on because they were designing a solar powered personal helicopter device, and we couldn’t stop thinking of Asakusa’s design of something similar in episode two.

When they self-deprecatingly said that others have probably discarded their design, I invoked :

“a lot of useful work comes from plugging boring technologies together and doing the obvious thing.”

Lots of times the obvious thing is overlooked. Tho not necessarily in the field you want!

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Really quite surprised that kids love watching “Keep Your Hands Off ” because of the physical humor and funny faces—stuff that’s practically invisible to me. They also love (that is, K-On!), for the same reason, which I find really fascinating and bizarre—watching a show and they crack up laughing at something that I didn’t realize could be funny at all. We do live and learn.

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hi all, the minnesota freedom fund (which afaict is getting a lot of the donation traffic) has recommended also donating to reclaim the block ( and black visions collective (, both of them local mutual aid organizations

if you're in the same boat as me (i.e. getting a paycheck from a tech job today) consider whether you've got the resources to keep giving, including if you've already made a donation

here's the tweet where they request this btw:

Regarding last boost: my employer matches donations to

so your's might too, double-check!

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here are some places you can donate, if you are able:

Official George Floyd Memorial Fund:

Minnesota Freedom Fund (pays bail for those who cannot):

Reclaim The Block (coalition demanding Minneapolist divests from policing and invests in alternatives):

Black Visions Collective (MN an organization dedicated to Black liberation and collective liberation):


Via 's recent podcast on North American indigenous languages, I learned that, in , every verb is more or less irregular.

I.e., each verb has its own unique past and future tense (and other tenses). There are a few very broad patterns, but they have just as many exceptions as the things they cover.

And… Babies just pick this up as they're learning the language—thousands of conjugations. Human cognition is surreal. 👌👌

"Recent traditions have emerged that… infect complex patterns with artificial simplicity, exercising a civilizing control over what some see as chaos. The Sumerians started it. The Romans perfected it. The Anglosphere inherited it. The world is now mired in it. The war between good and evil is in reality an imposition of stupidity and simplicity over wisdom and complexity."

, : How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World (

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"I think the world has always been ultra complex and institutions have been in the business of making popular and true-ish simplicities. As we democratise education and more ppl have access to read and write the media landscape, the shortcomings of those simplicities are revealed, fewer ppl can believe in any singular perspective. What's lacking is multiperspective dexterity."

🔥! So much this

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"When ppl say 'the world is getting more complex' I mentally replace it with 'the simplified simulations of the world we used to trust are getting less convincing'."

"Like leveldb, but: multi-author—it syncs

Like CouchDb, but: with signatures and encryption, so untrusted nodes can help move data around.

Like Scuttlebutt, but: one author can use multiple devices—data is mutable—uses a key-value data model instead of event-sourcing, to reduce the need for custom indexing—supports partial replication—will sync over HTTP, so it's easy to host in places like

Like DAT, but: multi-author, multi-device—simpler code and algorithms, easier to implement"

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TIL: — A distributed, syncable key-value store (early alpha)

Comparison to and attached (via Excited because Earthstar offers:

- mutability, deletion 🎉
- multiple devices per author 🎊
- partial replication 👏
- 🥴

H/t @staltz (

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kanji ideology and minority speakers (9/?) 

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Child, looking over my shoulder looking at C# docs: "Wait, Microsoft makes more than Minecraft?"

The dev community is moving towards small cross-platform command-line utilities and that's a good thing. Node of course (💛 npx), Rust too, etc.

The era of ugly pointless Java or Qt or Tk GUIs (like that are intended to be distributed as executables and so lack build scripts/instructions is fading and I'm happy about that.

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