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“Fischer Black thought that got the right price within a factor of two about 90 per cent of the time… I knew Fischer pretty well, and he didn’t throw numbers like those around lightly; he thought long and hard about them, even though they sound like the kind of rough figures other people would come up with quickly. We argued quite a bit about them, and I pushed for ‘within a factor of two about half the time’.” —Aaron Brown

*Financial Risk Management for Dummies* chapter 4 = 🔥

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“Taking less risk than is optimal is not safer; it just locks in a worse outcome. In competitive fields, doing less than the best often means failing completely. Taking more risk than is optimal also results in a worse outcome, and often leads to complete disaster.”
—Aaron Brown, “Red-Blooded Risk”

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Friends, I'm a terribly incompetent social medialyte—I don't see many toots since I follow almost no one, don't check local or federated timelines, don't get follow/fave/boost notifications—just at some point I lost the taste for being plugged in.

But! I'm more than happy to read, learn, discuss, answer, and mentor:

or whatever 🤗!

(I'll pin this toot, so don't link to it!)

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Ideas I frequently invoke:

- Philip Guo on silent technical privilege

- Bryn Hammond on silenced history

- Duncan Watts on cumulative advantage, or, MusicLab, in the top ten scientific experiments ever

- AnimeFeminist for their critiques and season guides

(Don't link to this toot, it'll be edited+deleted, but it'll be pinned to my profile on

If you have young children and want to make word search puzzles, you know, for practicing spelling in English or another language using the Latin alphabet, or Japanese (hiragana or katakana), I got you covered:

See if you can find all eleven:


The filler characters are randomly generated with the same frequencies as naturally-occurring Japanese (well, as natural as my corpus of anime subtitles…).

Offspring the younger is incredibly excited to be beating me on . I'm going to try and get close to his score without exceeding it.

That time we all learned that computing the inverse of a matrix to solve a linear system wasn't as bad as all that:

Taking the inverse of a matrix is anathema in conventional wisdom, but by some numerical examples backed by theoretical explanation, you can see that conventional wisdom isn't right. The power of logic.

That world clock app that shows times in like eight different cities and that lets you drag the time left/right to past/future and updates all the cities. Very handy.

I think a lot about that niche part of this model where they paid a racing nerd to watch the races in slow-motion and tabulate cases where the horses were bumped or blocked, to soft-adjust wins and losses and reduce the impact of bad-luck on the regressions.

That’s some high-grade modeling juice. There’s no reason the deep learning kooks couldn’t be this detail-oriented about their models, except they’d rather rush off to publish new papers/blog posts instead of make money.

22 boosted
22 boosted

Learning CSS Grid has given me super-powers, send help. 

I seem to recall reading that the informal national motto is "It can always get worse."

Is this true? Was it Maciej Cegłowski that said this? Did I hallucinate this?

pronoun-related tech drama 

implausibly high nerd level 

‘People will tolerate a lot of pain if it works.’

The writer went from in news to dataviz in , and shares lessons learned, starting with “the word ‘finance’ is uselessly broad”.

Much resonates.

Any scholars in the house?

What's the conversion factor between US dollars and bulls by the hekatomb?

I have some sacrifices to make and want to try and outdo Agamemnon.

Fio: "What's the most important thing to be a good pilot? Experience?"

Porco: "No. Inspiration."

didn't tut-tut Fio staying up all night to design his new plane. Not at first.

I don't want to be that asshole who tells people to work during family holidays or anything but when a grownup goes hard, I'm glad Aaron Brown showed me an alternative to tut-tutting and trotting out boring conventional wisdom as if it was a brilliant insight.

Again, I am *not* talking about exploitation or force.

I'm talking about how art and breakthroughs (you remember those?) often require unexpected, unconventional ingredients beyond rigid rules.

on sleep deprivation helped me become a lot less low-brow about conventional wisdom about sleep, burnout, etc.:

Yes, sleep is good, yes avoiding burning out is very good, blablafuckingbla.

Advice that's reasonable 98% of the time is still unreasonable 2% of the time and calculatedly reaching for something valuable by going to or a bit beyond the limit can be worthy of admiration and praise instead of presumptuous parochialism.

I never thought I'd ever write the sentence "seeing a link to CVS Pharmacy's FAQ in search results while troubleshooting the cvs version control thing at 3am makes me ask if my life took a wrong turn recently".

And again, I feel this isn't too much to ask because she did say, in her "Yellow Ranger" track,

"But I got some time for a bagel and a muffin,
Team, moving forward damn these bitches can't say nothing
But I got this all up on my LinkedIn
Proficient in spitting…"

Can someone on Twitter ask ( to make herself a LinkedIn or update her old one, so people without LinkedIns have something nice to put in their official work bios?

(Bio webapp at work has a slot for LinkedIn, but not for GitHub/Stack Overflow/any of the watering holes used by normal coders.)

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