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Isn't it unnerving that an event with 3% probability is 26% likely to happen at least one time out of ten?

Do something that rare—and 3% seems very rare right??—ten times a day and you're encountering it twice a week.

Kind of freaky.

Bernoulli magic.

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“Fischer Black thought that got the right price within a factor of two about 90 per cent of the time… I knew Fischer pretty well, and he didn’t throw numbers like those around lightly; he thought long and hard about them, even though they sound like the kind of rough figures other people would come up with quickly. We argued quite a bit about them, and I pushed for ‘within a factor of two about half the time’.” —Aaron Brown

*Financial Risk Management for Dummies* chapter 4 = 🔥

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“Taking less risk than is optimal is not safer; it just locks in a worse outcome. In competitive fields, doing less than the best often means failing completely. Taking more risk than is optimal also results in a worse outcome, and often leads to complete disaster.”
—Aaron Brown, “Red-Blooded Risk”

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Ideas I frequently invoke:

- Philip Guo on silent technical privilege

- Bryn Hammond on silenced history

- Duncan Watts on cumulative advantage, or, MusicLab, in the top ten scientific experiments ever

- AnimeFeminist for their critiques and season guides

(Don't link to this toot, it'll be edited+deleted, but it'll be pinned to my profile on

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It's been interesting loving shows that few watched and that few would like. When I try to find more shows like (which I love, despite its production issues; it streams on Prime and HIDIVE), I can try "slice of life" or "slow-burn" but these descriptions totally miss how Just Because characters spend so much time on riding or waiting for trains and buses; how much of the drama happens on chat apps; how nobody is a bully and every character is admirable and mature.

😊 great show!

Mountains are valued for their range, water is valued for its source.

Streams follow mountains, and mountains are brought to life by streams.

For the mountain, streams are its veins, grass, its hair, and mists
and clouds its expressions.

, Song dynasty, c. 1000s

Pretty sakura colormap for my plot: "PuOr" in matplotlib.

Umm, I doubt anyone wants to know what the plot is of (though it's very interesting, it takes a long time to explain, and it might not be that useful).

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The English language: Let's make "a personal matter" and "a personnel matter" mean pretty much the opposite thing, and the only difference in pronunciation between them be which syllable is stressed

The English language: *Rubs hands together excitedly*

Is there a site that shows top accounts tweeting from country X in language Y?

OH: “Your job when someone says something is not to refute it. It is to consider why they said what they said.”

OH: “I don't want to spend the rest of my working life in a bear market”

But bear markets are fun!

Also whatever Gandalf told Frodo about choosing burdens etc.

‘In software, everything is possible but nothing is free. We want to find out if it’s possible within the appetite we’re shaping for. Instead of asking “is it possible to do X?” ask “is X possible in 6-weeks?” That’s a very different question.’ —Shape Up ()

I feel this Matplotlib dark style with Viridis plot colors is very Manhattan in the rain, very bright lights big city. Makes me feel like 8-bit pixelart Neuromancer.

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Today we hit 20-session trailing returns of -30% 😳!

But enough about the past! What about the next three days? What does history say it might go up or down to till Monday close?

As usual, these charts show the trailing returns, so find -30% on them. Then one shows the WORST drop over next 3 days, the other the BEST spike over 3 days. Color is year.

Depending on whether you've bought put or call options expiring Monday 😊.

What an incredible ride, in a ghastly, Army of Darkness sort of way.

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This Hadith from Bukhari, the gold medallist of compilers of the Prophet’s teachings, seems pretty straightforward to the rest of us—

“If you hear of an outbreak of plague in a land, do not enter it; but if the plague breaks out in a place while you are in it, do not leave that place.” (

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The religious 

Everyone loves khoomei, but ’s 2015 electropop album “11.06” is just what I was looking for:

Definitely stay for the 4th and 6th tracks 🔥

Kelly says, if someone offers you 4x your wager should a fair coin flip land your way (and you lose your wager if not), you should bet 25% of your bankroll.

(The person offering you this deal might have a totally valid reason for doing so—their estimates of the return or the underlying probability might be different, or they're using this bet in an ensemble of other bets that are executing some larger strategy.

Options on S&P500 & VIX are regularly popping 4x these days.)

“Human nature yearns to see order and hierarchy in the world. It will invent it where it cannot find it.” —Benoit , “The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence”

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